We are coming up to the 64th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, October 16 - 28, 1962. I was in third grade and age seven at the time. That event must have marked the beginning of my fear of annihilation — the imagined state of affairs where everything that I knew and loved could be vaporized in a moment. I mentioned my third grade “air raid drills” in a previous post, “The Great Man Theory” in April 2025.
The feeling lasted longer than thirteen days, however, and persisted in some form as my understanding of the world slowly expanded throughout my childhood.
The actual crisis, however, came and went before two weeks was up. Wikipedia reminds us of events that engendered the event:
The Cuban Missile Crisis was a 13-day confrontation between the governments of the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in the United Kingdom, Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba. The confrontation is widely considered the closest the Cold War came to escalating into full-scale nuclear war.
You see, the Soviet Union had been shipping materiel to Cuba so they would have nuclear strike capability in order to deter a U.S. invasion. Kennedy ordered a blockade of Soviet ships to Cuba, but called it a quarantine so that “the U.S. could avoid the formal implications of a state of war.”1
In the end a deal was struck: Russia would dismantle its arsenal in Cuba; the U.S. would promise never (ever!) to invade Cuba again; and a secret agreement was made between Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin — that the U.S. would remove its Jupiter missiles from Turkey. But it had to stay secret or else the whole deal would be off.
It worked. Disaster averted. Everyone took a deep breath.
The good ol’ days.
Fast forward 64 years, annihilation is a topic again. This time the culprit is AI. The speed at which it is improving itself seems to be outrunning our ability to keep it in alignment — making sure an AI system’s goals and behavior match what people actually want.2
Opinions and predictions vary. Bill Gates said a billion humans could die. Evan Hubinger (Anthropic’s alignment science lead) said the possibility of human extinction is greater than 10% by the end of the decade. Naturally there are those who claim that it is all a hoax in the same bucket as climate change, Covid, and the moon landing. Those of a more optimistic bent say doomsday predictions are unfounded, unlikely, alarmist, or any combination of these.
I am beginning to think that an optimist-leaning attitude might be warranted and even helpful. In researching this article, I was reminded of Stanislav Petrov. September 26, 1983. Petrov was a duty officer at a Soviet satellite-based early warning system. One day the system reported U.S. missile launches which Petrov judged (rightly) as a false alarm. He didn’t pass the alert up the chain.
The cause turned out to be sunlight reflecting off high-altitude clouds, which satellites misinterpreted. Stanislav Petrov Day3 honors “the man who saved the world.”
I checked out other nuclear “near misses” over the years. Wikipedia lists 14 intentional near misses between 1950 and 2022, the Cuban Missile Crisis being but one of them. The event of September 26, 1983 is on a list of unintentional near misses, along with 21 others between 1955 and 2007.
And these are just the fumbles we know about. You might ask “Is there really solace to be had in considering that no nuclear conflagration has happened in the 81 years since the first nuclear test in New Mexico?”
I’m gonna say yes, there is.
Part of me is fearful about the looming AI situation. And part of me is resigned to whatever might come. The building of a malicious super intelligence is as much out of my control as the building of nuclear launch facilities in the jungles of Cuba.
Part of me sees the wisdom of becoming a Buddhist monk and living in the remotest monastery I can access without climbing too many stairs.
Part of me is annoyed that we have to do this all again — wait with trepidation while a group of people figure it out. There has got to be a better way of coping with this brave new world. I personally can only do so much hand-wringing.
Studies suggest that experiencing a prolonged sense of dread has an effect on the brain.4 Chronic stress can lead to increasing emotional reactivity and weakening executive functions like decision-making and planning.
Most of us already know some kind of wholesome stress management practice: mindfulness, exercise, getting enough sleep, connecting with people. There are lots of lists out there.
Whatever the sobering reality coming our way, I hope to meet it with clarity and some measure of agency—directing my energy toward what I can influence.
My hope is to apply this to any scenario. Whatever it is.
Meanwhile, I’ll practice.
Source: Wikipedia article on Cuban Missile Crisis
Source: Stanford University
There is a Substack by Ricki Heicklin, Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review, which, having spent decades in HR, I found very funny.
An example of one such study is in Science Times. NIH also has a summary of several studies.
I was 2 when the Cuban Missile Crisis went down. I was too young to have any sense of the existential angst that it foisted upon the adults in the room, but I have since learned enough about the many near-annihilation moments and episodes we have weathered. Evidently, they have come and gone. I somehow have NOT internalized the new nuke-caliber threat of AI. That said, I do feel a deep sadness that humanity has found yet another way to even put this kind of global worry upon us. It's tiresome. AI. Covid. Climate Change. Ozone. Acid rain (we fixed that one!) Enough already. It almost makes me want to start a conspiracy theory. Maybe all of these new AI scares are orchestrated by Big Pharma wanting to spike up its angst-and-worry meds sales. Maybe it can use AI to make the biggest blockbusters of all time.
Have't these people watched 2001: A Space Odyssey? "I'm sorry Dave...."